Keeping Track

Dad was an accountant. I remember him complaining that he had a bad habit. He counted everything, even sips at the water fountain. He suffered from the accountant's curse, but it wasn't all bad; for example, he kept track of mileage on the car and what he spent on gasoline, so he knew what it cost to get around and he could tell when the  car needed a tune-up. His gas purchases went in a record book along with household expenses, and it all had to balance to the penny at the end of the month. He made sure we kids knew about keeping track of pennies as well. The allowance and the comic books, the licorice pipes and firecrackers from the corner store, and the offering we gave at church, it all went into our record books.

That was in the 40s and 50s. Counting pennies was a necessity after the war when a penny was worth something. Since then the dollar has become the new penny, and there are always a few left over at the end of the month. Life is good and I am lazy. The bank keeps track. I check that the credit cards are paid off, but I don't count so much anymore. However, given growing concern over climate change, it may be time to do the math once again.

In 1941 when I was born, gasoline was about 6 cents per litre (as near as I can calculate using US gallons converted to litres and USD prices converted to CAD using the 1941 exchange rate). Since then, 6 cents has inflated to 102 cents (inflation factor of 17.07). On January 10, 2022 the price per litre in Canada was about 164 cents and rising. Why is gas so expensive? Are we getting ripped off by oil companies and the government?

Let's look at it downside up. Why is gas so cheap? Here is some math using sources I cannot vouch for and questionable algorithms. But it will suggest the magnitude of the problem. I'm going to stay with USD because that is what the sources give. Please correct my work if you catch an error.

At present, every year we delay fixing climate change adds 500 billion USD to the global cost of climate change which now stands at 16.5 trillion dollars. (theworldcounts.com) 
During 2021 global carbon dioxide emissions were 33.0 billion metric tons. (iea.org)
0.00235 metric tons of carbon dioxide are emitted by burning one litre of gasoline. (US EPA)
So, for each litre of gasoline, the additional annual cost of climate change is $500,000,000,000 x 0.00235 ÷ 33,000,000,000 = $0.0356 USD or 0.0449 CAD (exchange rate 1.26)

Looks insignificant. Maybe we should pay an extra 4.5 cents a litre and go on burning gasoline. No no no. Not so fast. There are other fuels burning in other ways to keep us fed and clothed and housed and happy. In Canada the annual per-capita carbon dioxide debt is 18.6 metric tons. (worldometer)
$500,000,000,000 x 18.6 ÷ 33,000,000,000 = $281 USD or $354 CAD per person. Even that's not so bad. I spend more on coffee.

However, we still owe $16,500,000,000,000 to repair the damage done in the last 200 years from burning fossil fuel, most of it in developed nations. Based on current emission rates, my share of that debt is $9,271 USD or $11,681 CAD. The $354 is what I add to that debt this year if we continue burning. 

I am not sure of these numbers, but it shows that Dad did not count the hidden costs, what the economists call negative externalities, and what I call the mess. There were some missing columns in the record book. As a result, the grandchildren will pay what we don't, and that debt will probably be paid not in dollars but in extreme weather, wildfires, storm damage, flooding, drought, famine, population dislocation, conflict over scarce resources, mass extinctions, and death. Why is fuel so cheap?

What am I saying? I can't leave it there or none of us will get to sleep until I post a more positive message. More math to come, I promise, but I haven't a clue what comes next. I'll think about it. Maybe we can fix this.