What Are The Chances?

Storm warnings tonight. Think I will have a coffee on the porch and wait for the lightning show. I just saw on the weather network that your chance of being struck by lightning is about 1 in 960,000 in a given year. This is an example of information parading as disinterested science while the actual motive is hidden. In the case of The Weather Network, it is just to keep you watching so your chance of being struck by one of their sponsors increases. It ain't what you thought. Here are some reasons why.

First objection: different sources report different numbers. The US CDC gives 1 in 500,000 as the chance of being struck by lightning in a year, almost twice as probable. The Weather Network and the CDC cannot both be right.

Second objection: the statistic is not supported by a citation of the source, so it is impossible to validate. The purpose of the number is to dazzle you so you don't notice you are being hooked to watch the next SUV commercial. Validation is futile.

Third objection: the probability of an event is influenced by numerous factors, such as location, age, gender, occupation, proximity to a storm, and whether you are using the plumbing. For example, the CDC reports that 85% of lightning fatalities are male. Apparently, the Y chromosome attracts electrons more strongly than the X because of the pointy part hanging down, and the corresponding male body part acts as a lightning rod if it gets too close to the water in the plumbing. I am joking. Actually no explanation was given, so you can make one up yourself. But if you knew the cause, you could contrive to reduce your chances of being struck by lightning. That might be useful, but the number alone is not. The 85% by itself is merely a kick in the male ego. Maybe it's Thor knocking off guys so he gets the girls for himself. Probably not. Correlation is not causation.

Fourth objection: the framing of a statistic determines the value you assign to it. Just after dazzling me with lightning strikes, The Weather Network reported that I am 25 times more likely to be bitten by a venomous snake than struck by lightning. I fear the snake more than the storm anyway. The storm is impersonal and unintentional. It isn't out to get me, No worries. The snake is another matter. It has a mind, I am in it's gaze, and it is the epitome of intentional evil. Help. 

OK, Weather Network, you got me. I will watch someone eat a burger at the next commercial break rather than contemplate being dinner for a reptile. Just a minute. That's silly. I don't recall ever being within striking distance of a venomous snake. Probability zero. But I often watch a storm from my porch for the fun of it. Now that I think of it, I should watch from indoors, stay zipped, and keep away from the plumbing so I don't get zapped.

Shouldn't have had that coffee. I don't think I can wait until the storm is over. What are the chances?

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Photo credit: © Can Stock Photo / filmstroem